2018
USMCA Signed
2020
Enters Into Force
May 2026
Round 1 — Mexico City
Jun 2026
Round 2 — Washington
Jul 1, 2026
Joint Review Convened
Jul 21–23, 2026
Round 3 — Mexico City
2036
Term Ends Absent Extension
Current Legal Status
Read Article 34.7 →
Agreement remains in force
New 16-year term not confirmed
Annual reviews now required
Current term ends 2036 absent extension
Latest Developments
Jul 17, 2026
Round 3 agenda confirmed: electronic payment services included
USTR confirmed the July 21–23 bilateral round will cover steel & aluminum, automobiles, economic security, labor, agriculture, and electronic payment services — the first formal digital-trade entry point of the review.
Official Announcement
Digital Trade →
Jul 14, 2026
Mexico’s outstanding US demands narrow from 54 to 14
Economy Secretary Ebrard said the US has narrowed its list of concerns with Mexico from 54 items in 2025 to 14 heading into Round 3; Mexico has raised 13 of its own, centered on steel, aluminum, and automotive tariffs.
Reported
Rules of Origin →
Jul 7–8, 2026
KPMG survey: 42% of Canadian manufacturers shifting production to the US
A KPMG poll reported by Canadian outlets found 42% of manufacturers have shifted or plan to shift production south, and 57% have paused or cut capital spending amid review uncertainty.
Reported
Canada Position →
Jul 3, 2026
Canada briefs provinces; reiterates steel, aluminum, auto, lumber priorities
Minister LeBlanc updated provincial and territorial trade ministers on the Joint Review outcome, reiterating that Canada will keep pressing the US on sectoral tariffs while defending the trilateral framework.
Official Statement
Canada Position →
Jul 1, 2026
Trilateral Joint Review convenes; US declines 16-year renewal
The Free Trade Commission held the mandatory six-year review under Article 34.7. The US did not agree to renew on current terms, triggering annual reviews. USTR was explicit: the agreement “remains in force pending resolution of these issues or until the Agreement’s termination.”
Official Statement
Legal Status →
8 Tracked Topics
Status by Topic
Rules of Origin
Active
US proposal on the table: raise automotive regional value content to 82%, plus a new 50% US-sourced requirement. Not yet finalized text.
Chapters 4–5
Read more →
Automotive
Active
US reportedly seeking 82% regional value content, 50% US-specific requirement.
Chapter 4, Automotive Appendix
Read more →
Steel & Aluminum
Active
June 1 proclamation set tiered Section 232 rates (10–50%), with lower rates for goods ≥85% US-melted-or-smelted, through Dec. 2027. Canada, Mexico still want full relief.
Outside USMCA text — Section 232, domestic law
Read more →
Economic Security
Active
Anchored Round 1. China-origin content and transshipment scrutiny.
Cross-cutting — Chapters 4, 7
Read more →
Agriculture
Flagged
Canadian dairy TRQ compliance and Mexican GMO corn restrictions flagged as likely disputes, not yet a formal negotiating item.
Chapter 3
Read more →
Labor
Active
Rapid Response Labor Mechanism reform in play. 46 facility cases filed to date, most in the automotive sector.
Chapter 23, Annex 31-A
Read more →
Digital Trade
Active
Status upgraded: “electronic payment services” is a confirmed Round 3 agenda item — the first formal digital-trade entry point. AI/data-flow annexes are a separate, outside-stakeholder proposal, not yet on any government agenda.
Chapter 19
Read more →
De Minimis
Pending
Not yet confirmed in formal rounds. Separate from the CBP Section 321 suspension — see FAQ.
Chapter 7
Read more →
Formal Process
Negotiation Tracker
Bilateral negotiating rounds and the formal trilateral Joint Review are two separate tracks. Both are shown here.
| Date | Forum | Parties | Issues | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28–29, 2026 | Bilateral Round 1 | US – Mexico | Economic security, automotive rules of origin, steel & aluminum | Concluded; advanced discussions on ROO and economic security |
| Jun 15–17, 2026 | Bilateral Round 2 | US – Mexico | Rules of origin, economic security, agriculture, labor, environment (conceptual) | Concluded; Greer & Ebrard met directly in DC |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Trilateral Joint Review | US, Mexico, Canada | Mandatory Article 34.7 six-year review | US declined 16-year renewal; annual reviews triggered; agreement remains in force |
| Jul 21–23, 2026 | Bilateral Round 3 | US – Mexico | Steel & aluminum, automobiles, economic security, labor, agriculture, electronic payment services | Scheduled; Greer travels Jul 22–24 to meet Ebrard |
| TBD | US – Canada bilateral track | US – Canada | Steel, aluminum, autos, lumber tariffs | Not yet scheduled; lags behind US–Mexico track per Global Affairs Canada |
Sources: USTR press releases (May 29, Jun 18, Jul 1, Jul 17, 2026); Global Affairs Canada, Minister LeBlanc statements (Jul 1, Jul 3, 2026).
Three-Country View
Positions of the Parties
United States
Declined 16-year renewal on current terms; annual reviews underway
Top priorities: higher automotive regional value content (reported 82% RVC / 50% US-content proposal); rules of origin as a check on China transshipment through Mexico; broader reshoring of electronics, pharma, semiconductors.
Recent statement: Ambassador Greer, Jul 17 — confirmed Round 3 agenda and thanked Mexico for “collaboration over several months.”
Mexico
Accepts annual-review structure; pressing hardest on Section 232 relief
Top priorities: elimination of the 50% steel/aluminum and 25% automotive Section 232 tariffs, which Ebrard has called “unsustainable” and “unacceptable”; defense of existing rules of origin; a regional approach to automotive integration.
Recent statement: Ebrard, mid-July — US outstanding demands narrowed from 54 to 14; Mexico has raised 13 of its own, mostly tariff-related.
Canada
Sought full 16-year renewal; not yet part of a bilateral round
Top priorities: relief from US sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and softwood lumber; preserving the trilateral framework rather than a US–Mexico-led process.
Recent statement: Minister LeBlanc, Jul 3 — briefed provinces; called the annual-review process “somewhat uncharted territory.”
Business impact: a KPMG poll found 42% of Canadian manufacturers have shifted or plan to shift production to the US, and 57% have paused or cut capital spending amid the uncertainty.
Sources: USTR press releases; Global Affairs Canada; Mexico Business News (Ebrard interviews, Jul 2026); White & Case LLP client alert, Jul 2026.
Round 3 Preview
Bilateral · US–MexicoJuly 21–23, 2026 — Mexico City. Confirmed agenda: steel & aluminum and derivative products, automobiles, economic security, labor, agriculture, and electronic payment services. Ambassador Greer travels to Mexico City July 22–24 to meet Secretary Ebrard directly. Canada is not on the confirmed participant list.
Note: this is a bilateral US–Mexico negotiating round, separate from the formal trilateral Joint Review process convened July 1 under Article 34.7.
↗ USTR — Round 3 announcement, July 17 ↗ USTR — Ambassador Greer travel noticePublic Source Library
Key Documents
Primary government sources cited across this tracker. Members get the full Tier 1/Tier 2 archive with weekly change logs below.
Full Source Library — Members Only
Tier 1 and Tier 2 sourcing for every topic above, weekly change logs, and the full status archive back to the review’s start.
ICPA Mexico Conference
Live Status Update, November 3–5
Get the latest USMCA review developments straight from ICPA’s trade policy team.
Trade Law Partners
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About this tracker
Spot something inaccurate, know of a development, article, or video that should be added, or notice something not working? Reach out any time.
This tracker is researched, written, and maintained by Heather Tschirhart, Head of Research, Data, and Analytics.